🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still